Tuesday, February 18

Monitoring of industry financial flows: the first signs of a gradual cooling of consumer demand

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In October 2023, incoming payments made through the payment system of the Bank of Russia remained near the high level of the third quarter.

In industries focused on consumer demand, receipts decreased by 0.4% relative to the average level of the third quarter, mainly due to food production, agriculture, retail trade and real estate transactions. This may indicate the first signs of a gradual cooling of consumer demand.

Some decrease in revenue was also demonstrated by industries focused on foreign markets. The growth of incoming flows continued in the investment sectors.

– The volume of financial flows in October remained close to the high level reached in the third quarter of 2023. The volume of incoming payments made through the payment system of the Bank of Russia in October 2023 was 0.1% lower than the average level of the third quarter of 2023. Excluding production, petroleum products and public administration, revenue also decreased by 0.1%.

The growth rate of incoming payments

– In industries focused on foreign markets, the volume of incoming payments in October decreased by 4.2% compared to the average level of the third quarter of 2023. The largest industry in the group, crude oil and natural gas production, had the greatest negative impact, where payments adjusted after strong growth in the previous quarter. Mining of other minerals and oil refining, on the contrary, supported the dynamics of this group of industries.

Crude oil and natural gas production
Production of coke and petroleum products

 

– In industries focused on consumer demand, the total volume of incoming payments in October 2023 showed a slight decrease (-0.4%) compared to the third quarter. The main contribution to the decline was made by food production, agriculture, retail trade and real estate transactions. This may indicate the first signs of a gradual cooling of consumer demand, which are confirmed by a number of other operational data for October. Financial services and telecommunications had a positive impact.

Food production
Crop and animal husbandry, hunting and provision of related services in these areas
Retail trade, except for trade in motor vehicles and motorcycles
Real estate transactions
Activities related to the provision of financial services, other than insurance and pension services
Telecommunications activities

 

– In industries focused on intermediate demand, the volume of incoming payments was 1.4% lower than the average level of the third quarter. The financial services and computer software development industries had a positive impact. The production of crude oil and natural gas had the greatest negative impact. Rent and leasing, agriculture and provision of electric energy also made a negative contribution.

Activities related to the provision of financial services, other than insurance and pension services
Computer software development, consulting services in this area and other related services
Crude oil and natural gas production
Rent and leasing
Crop and animal husbandry, hunting and provision of related services in these areas
Provision of electric energy, gas and steam; air conditioning

 

– In industries focused on investment demand, revenue continued to grow (+1.4%). The main positive contribution was made by scientific research and development, as well as electronics. The growth of incoming financial flows of the group of industries was hindered by the construction of engineering structures. However, the downward deviation from the average level of the third quarter was moderate – apparently, it is primarily due to short-term fluctuations in nominal payments at the industry level.

Research and development
Manufacture of computers, electronic and optical products
Construction of engineering structures

 

– In October 2023, the value of incoming financial flows (excluding production,
oil refining and public administration) in most federal districts was below the average value of the third quarter. Incoming financial flows grew in the Southern and Volga Federal Districts. In most federal districts, the amount of revenue decreased in agriculture (section A) and electricity (section D), but increased in trade (section G).

A source: https://cbr.ru/press/event/?id=17190

The material was prepared by: Zubarev E.A.

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