Thursday, April 25

Venezuela under Nicolas Maduro: a test of strength

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The stability of Venezuela’s political system leaves much to be desired. It is subject to the influence of economic turmoil and internal contradictions, which negatively affect the well-being of citizens. At the same time, the government of Nicolas Maduro has retained a significant margin of safety, allowing it to withstand the pressure of the opposition and external forces.
 

Venezuela has been in a deep economic and political crisis for almost a decade, and the legitimacy of its Government is being challenged not only by the internal opposition, but also by a significant part of the international community. The country is deprived of a large share of foreign investments and foreign assets, and a number of restrictive measures imposed by the states of the “collective West” are acting against it. The population of the Bolivarian Republic is experiencing difficulties in obtaining basic necessities and medicines, which leads to social protests and mass emigration. Despite the desperate situation, the government of Nicolas Maduro was able (at least for now) to maintain control over the political decision-making process, repel opposition attacks and withstand external pressure, including sanctions. In 2022, recovery growth is expected in the country at all, which, according to the boldest forecasts, can reach 20 percent. The minimum wage has already increased from $7 to $30. 41.6 percent of Venezuelans surveyed by a research company
Delphos, noted the improvement of the social situation.

Several events affected the alignment of the overall dynamics at once: These are the change of administration in the United States (Joe Biden significantly reduced pressure on the Maduro government), the COVID-19 pandemic (quarantine measures introduced slowed down all social processes in the country and hindered protest activity), rising energy prices (largely due to the Ukrainian crisis). At the same time, it must be admitted that the executive power itself in Venezuela has demonstrated significant reserves of strength. In the absence of a functioning economic system, functioning state institutions and the support of the population, it was able to withstand the onslaught of the opposition. This refutes traditional ideas about the stability of political regimes and requires in-depth analysis.

A deeper analysis of the mechanisms woven into the architecture of the Venezuelan political system that contribute to the preservation of the current government will make it possible to better understand the modern specifics of both the Bolivarian Republic and similar regimes in different regions of the world, to determine their strengths and weaknesses.
In the context of the aggravation of international relations, this task is becoming particularly relevant. External destructive influence, sanctions, protest activity of the population can have a significant impact on countries and lead to the transformation of their regimes. Understanding the stabilization and destabilization factors of the stability of governments will help to determine the limit of their strength, predict changes in the political landscape in the regions of the world. The experience of the Bolivarian Republic will also be useful to Russia. The identification of positive and negative aspects of the internal political development of the Latin American country will make it possible to find the optimal formula for state-building under external pressure, to avoid mistakes made by both sides of the conflict in Venezuela.
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