In 2022, in addition to the traditional migration problems associated with immigration from Central Asia, Russia faced processes in this area that had not previously manifested themselves at all, or else proceeded in a much weaker form. The first of them was mass “anti–war” emigration, and the second was an even larger influx of refugees from the territories of Ukraine.
Fears about the mass return of migrant workers from Central Asian countries to their homeland, expressed by their authorities in connection with the beginning of the SVO, in fact turned out to be greatly exaggerated. If in January-November last year, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, 11.9 million people were registered for migration, then in 11 months of 2022 – already 15.5 million, or 30% more. In absolute terms, the increase in the number of registered foreigners amounted to 3.5 million people, which is largely due to the “Ministry of Internal Affairs. During the previous year, the agency repeatedly reminded immigrants from CIS countries who are in Russia that from January 1, the period of their preferential stay due to the end of the COVID-19 epidemic is ending, and now they are required to issue all the documents required by law. This work, which was carried out, including through embassies and national diasporas, had a noticeable effect. If 1.1 million foreign citizens were registered in January-February 2021, then 2.3 million were registered in the first two months of 2022.
Moreover, the growth in the number of registered foreigners continued in the future. So, in January–March 2022, when military operations in Ukraine were already in full swing, 3.8 million people were registered, whereas in the same period of 2021 – just under 2 million. In the first half of 2022, the Ministry of Internal Affairs registered 8.1 million foreign citizens, and in the same period of the previous year – 5.2 million. That is, despite the beginning of ITS, the number of registered migrants gradually increased, and the gap with last year’s figures increased. And this indicates that there was no noticeable outflow of migrants to their homeland. On the contrary, there was a certain influx of them to Russia, which, however, turned out to be not as significant as it could have been in peaceful conditions, when the economy was experiencing an acute shortage of labor. This is evidenced by the dynamics of their “legal” numbers. Thus, the number of patents issued for the right to work in the Russian Federation increased from 1 million 910.5 thousand to 2 million 23.1 thousand, or only 5.9%. And the number of valid patents during this period generally increased by only 2.5%.
Detailed migration statistics showing the current flows of migrants by country and region at the end of December 2022 are available only for January-September. During this period, 12.8 million migrants were put on the migration register of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, which is 3.5 million more than in the same period of 2021. It is significant that the difference between 2021 and 2022 in the number of registered migrants turned out to be the same as according to data for January-November. This means that there was no increase in the influx of migrant workers at the end of this year and most of the increase occurred in the first half of the year.
The absolute majority of migrants arrived in Russia from Central Asian countries, which (together with Kazakhstan) account for 3/4 of all foreigners registered by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation. At the same time, almost 2/3 of all migrants arrived in Russia from two Central Asian countries – Uzbekistan (37.9%) and Tajikistan (26.4%). In total, 8.3 million citizens of these countries were registered for migration in Russia. The share of the third most intensive labor migration country in the region of Kyrgyzstan against this background is small and amounts to only 6.4% (821 thousand registrations).
The number of migrants from European CIS countries is small against this background. 871 thousand citizens of Ukraine were registered for nine months, Belarus – 428 thousand, Moldova – 125 thousand. In total, out of these three states, 1.4 million people were registered for migration in Russia, which is 11.1% of the total number of registrations. In many ways, this is the result of the SVO, which has violated the usual configuration of migration flows. However, the reduction in the volume of labor immigration to Russia from Moldova and Ukraine began long before it began and was caused mainly by the signing of Euro-association agreements by both countries in the mid-2010s, which opened up the possibility for labor emigration of their population to EU countries.
A noticeable increase in recent years has been demonstrated only by immigration from Belarus, whose natives, thanks to membership in the EAEU, enjoy the same labor rights in Russia as Russian citizens. It is noteworthy that in 9 months of 2022, almost the same number of migrants were registered in Russia from Ukraine as from Kyrgyzstan, although the population of the latter is several times smaller.
According to the rate of immigration growth, Tajikistan took the first place, whose citizens arrived in Russia by 66.7% more than in January-September last year. According to this indicator, it slightly outstripped Ukraine (62.8%) and Uzbekistan (43.4%) by one and a half times. In all other countries, the rate of increase in immigration was much lower. It is curious that against the background of small migration flows from Estonia and Latvia in absolute terms, they have increased quite significantly in relative terms. Immigration to Russia from Estonia increased by a third (from 7.9 to 10.5 thousand), and from Latvia – by 15% (from 13 to 14.9 thousand) and only slightly decreased from Lithuania. Against the background of significant “anti-war” emigration from Russia to the Baltic States, these figures may indicate an outflow of the Russian population from these countries to Russia, caused by increased pressure on it from the authorities after the start of the SVO. In Transcaucasia, a slight increase in current immigration was observed from Azerbaijan and Georgia, while Armenian citizens in January-September 2022, on the contrary, were registered less than a year earlier.
The situation with the number of Ukrainian refugees to Russia is not completely clear. According to TASS, referring to a source in the law enforcement agencies, more than 5 million Ukrainian refugees have arrived in Russia since February, including over 721 thousand children. At the same time, there are only 42 thousand people in temporary accommodation, including 12 thousand children. The rest settled on their own, with relatives or emigrated to third countries. At the same time, RIA Novosti, with reference to the German statistical aggregator Statista, gives much more modest figures. According to him, as of October 3, almost 2.9 million refugees from Ukraine were registered in Russia, according to the number of which it ranked first in the world. Another 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees arrived in Poland, a little more than 1 million – in Germany, about 0.5 million – in the Czech Republic. It is not completely clear where the refugees who are not among the 871 thousand citizens of Ukraine assigned by the Ministry of Internal Affairs to migration have gone.
Most likely, under 5 million Ukrainian refugees, we mean the number of facts of crossing the border of Russia from Ukraine, and not the number of refugees registered in the territory of the Russian Federation. This is evidenced by the fact that, according to the same German Statistic resource, 8.2 million people crossed the border of Ukraine with Poland from February to December 13, 2022, and 6 million people left Poland for Ukraine in the opposite direction. If we take into account the number of transit refugees who have moved to other EU countries, the figure is just approaching 1.5 million who remained on the territory of Poland.
That is, a significant part of those who fled to Russia from Ukraine returned to the annexed territories, or left for EU countries. In Russia, taking into account the evacuation of the population from the right bank of the Kherson region, there are, apparently, more than 3 million Ukrainian refugees.
The naturalization of citizens of the CIS countries in Russia deserves special attention. In the first place in the number of cases of granting Russian citizenship for the first nine months of 2022 was Ukraine, whose citizens received 260.5 thousand Russian passports. Tajikistan confidently occupies the second position (119.6 thousand). Compared to last year, the number of Tajik citizens who became citizens of the Russian Federation (69.7 thousand) has almost doubled.
For comparison, citizens of Uzbekistan received more than 6 times fewer Russian passports over the same period – only 19.3 thousand. For what purpose, in less than a year, Russia granted citizenship to immigrants from Tajikistan, whose number is comparable to the population of a large district center, remains a mystery. In the future, such a policy will lead, and in part – in the regions most attractive to migrants from Central Asia – already leads to the formation of ethnic enclaves. As the experience of New Moscow, Kaluga and Moscow regions shows, and Rhythm of Eurasia has repeatedly written about this with increasing concern, the result of such a policy is an aggravation of relations with the local population and latent ethnic conflicts that have a high chance of developing into open ones.
The third of the key migration processes of 2022 – “anti–war” emigration from Russia – remains the subject of assessments and assumptions. Rosstat statistics and data from the FSB Border Service on the number of border crossing facts allow us to draw conclusions only about the scale of migration flows, which, as the situation develops, can significantly change the direction and scale.
Source: https://e-cis.info/news/566/105968/
