The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts Armenia’s economy to grow by 5% in 2023-24. This is stated in the next regional forecast of the bank. The estimate may decrease due to geopolitical risks, the forecast notes. In Armenia, as in other countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia, the effect of the relocation of Russian enterprises and the reorientation of trade flows between Russia and foreign countries is felt.
As a result, the economy in Armenia grew by 14.2% in 2022, mainly due to trade and services, which grew by 28.2% (industry – by 7.8%). The construction sector grew by 12.5% in 2022.
The inflow of foreign transfers almost doubled in 2022. According to the bank’s estimates, their influx from visiting Russians (including those of Armenian origin) has increased almost sevenfold (at the same time, the Central Bank of Armenia does not separate them according to the citizenship of the senders in the statistics of transfers – ed).
As a result, in the first three months of 2023, economic growth amounted to 12.2%, but there are signs of a slowdown due to the effect of a high base (in 2022, growth was so strong that it is now difficult to exceed it much).
Inflation in March decreased to 5.4%, thanks to the timely actions of the Central Bank of Armenia, which raised the key rate, as well as due to the strengthening of the Armenian dram (due to the influx of currency from Russians), which lowered the prices of imported goods.
Note that the EBRD’s forecast was raised compared to the previous one made in March: then economic growth for 2023 and 2024 was estimated at 4.0% and 4.8%.
A source: https://e-cis.info/news/567/109152/
