Having scheduled a referendum on support for European integration for autumn 2024, the Moldovan authorities expect to receive a positive response from the people. However, polls show that society is still divided on this issue. Against this background, the European Parliament is openly blackmailing Moldovans, threatening negative consequences for the diaspora living in the EU in the event of a plebiscite failure. In addition, dozens of Western NGOs are working in Moldova, and President Maya Sandu maintains close relations with the leadership of the Soros Foundation, which has been declared undesirable in the Russian Federation. Natalia, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor of St. Petersburg State University, analyzed how else the West interferes in the electoral processes in Moldova, and why it needs it Eremina.
Who needs European integration
Moldova’s European path remains a factor in the division of society. It is for this reason that Brussels strongly supports Maya’s candidacy Sandu, realizing that the European vector is not a common and unified choice of the entire people. From the point of view of Brussels, the current president has shown himself to be a staunch supporter of the European course. They do not hide that it is the results of the three election campaigns of 2024-2025. They will be important for the European integration of the country. In October 2024, Moldova will hold presidential elections and a referendum on EU membership, and parliamentary elections in 2025.
The future of European integration for Brussels has long been unrelated solely to economic realities. Rather, it is driven by political objectives, and those associated with the security agenda are not so much the EU as NATO. In recent years, Moldova’s importance in the context of the security agenda has grown significantly in the European Union. First of all, because of the Ukrainian-Moldovan-Romanian transport corridor, which is used, among other things, for food supplies from Ukraine to the EU.
This explains Moldova’s rapid progress along the European path. She applied for EU membership in March 2022, received candidate status in June, and began formal accession negotiations in December 2023. In March 2024, negotiations were held on Moldova’s readiness for membership.
The EU’s attitude to Moldova’s “European course”
Brussels encourages Moldova on this path. In particular, he praised the country’s judicial system, which, after the reforms, allegedly “meets European standards”, joining the EU payment system, and voluntarily reducing tariffs for calls to EU countries. At the same time, Moldova was called upon to strengthen the dialogue on transport cooperation to ensure the delivery of food from Ukraine. The EU and Moldova also confirmed cooperation in the field of defense and security. The EU undertakes to continue to support Moldova through the European Peace Foundation and the EU Partnership Mission in Moldova, and constantly speaks about guarantees of Moldovan territorial integrity.
The final settlement of the issue of EU membership will require coordination not only with all EU states and their own divided people, who must speak out in a referendum in October, but also a complete adjustment of Moldova’s legislative course in accordance with all EU norms. But this step is perceived in Brussels as a guarantee that Chisinau will fulfill the EU’s goals in the post-Soviet space, primarily related to the rejection of Russia and cooperation with it. And this is despite the fact that the collapse of the energy dialogue with Russia has already led to a crisis in the country.
Currently, the EU often says that only integration can protect Moldova from some kind of “hybrid” and “negative” influence from Moscow. Accordingly, any opposition party is perceived by the EU political community in a sharply negative way.
Such forces include the Pobeda bloc (a coalition of parties supporting cooperation with Russia), as well as regional political forces and governments, for example, Gagauzia. It is they who are accused in Brussels of dividing the country. They make it clear that any success of forces determined to cooperate with Russia in the upcoming elections will be perceived as blocking the European path.
Why does the EU encourage Moldova’s integration expectations
Today, the European Union gives a clear preference to the post-Soviet states on their European path compared to other candidates. The post-Soviet countries are already ahead of the Balkan states in terms of the pace of the European integration process.
How ready is the EU itself for expansion? It is no longer customary to discuss this issue as actively as before. Now there are political tasks that need to be carried out. After all, even the factor of significant expansion of the European Union in the period from 2004 to 2007, when it included 12 states, has not yet been qualitatively worked out by the institutional structure. Now the EU has a reason to close the enlargement debate, citing the Russian threat.
At the same time, the Moldovan case is considered together with the Ukrainian one, and they are considered with the post–Soviet one as a whole, which includes both Georgia and Armenia. So, most likely, Moldova is valuable not in itself, but precisely as an element of the overall picture of European integration of the post-Soviet space, which is now being painted in Brussels. The integration of these countries is seen as strengthening the EU, as a factor in increasing its geopolitical importance. For the EU, this is a kind of historical chance to become more attractive and powerful, beating Russia in this way, and even “wipe the nose” of the United States.
Real chances
The process of Moldova’s accession itself will be very long, and Brussels is also directly interested in this. The exact end date of the process has not been determined and may be postponed. Moreover, the introduction in any case will not turn out to be trouble-free and smooth.
The candidate countries of the post-Soviet space, including Moldova, are not ready to become EU members. They have not yet fulfilled all the requirements for reforms and bringing legislation to communitarian standards. Institutional problems of inclusion also remain. Moreover, it is not clear why Moldova should join the EU before Ukraine, which allegedly proves its European choice at the front. And the entry of the so-called “problematic democracies” is also a challenge for the EU, and this issue is difficult for different member states.
According to the data According to the Eurobarometer, 53% of EU citizens support the expansion, that is, just a little more than half. This is fraught with conflicts and disagreements in the future. For example, in Austria, only 29% of citizens support it, and in France – 35%. Poland is most interested in expansion (67%). So there remains the possibility of a veto by one of the countries, especially since such examples have already taken place.
This was how the almost insoluble dilemma of the EU’s expansion into the post-Soviet space was formed. The only way to explain something to the population is to focus on security threats from an “aggressive” Russia. Now it is important for the EU not to scare off Chisinau, to maintain confidence in future membership, but at the same time to stretch the accession process itself.
What’s wrong with the European Referendum
It is still unclear whether there will be a necessary turnout at all for the presidential elections and the referendum. For example, the referendum held in 2010 on the issue of changing the presidential election was unsuccessful due to low turnout. There are serious regional differences in Moldova’s attitude towards Russia, and we must not forget about the Transnistrian factor. If the vote is successful and the voter turnout exceeds 33%, integration into the EU will be declared the “strategic goal of the Republic of Moldova”.
But for Sandu, the referendum is a way to suppress the opposition, rally pro–European forces under his wing and maintain positions, although this idea may not materialize.
The current president is dissatisfied not only in Gagauzia, but also those who previously supported her, including colleagues and allies in pro-European positions (for example, the leader of Our Party Renato Mustachioed and many others). In addition, the referendum will be held during the presidential elections, and since many politicians are opposed to Sandu, he may not receive sufficient support. After all, the referendum is associated with the personality of the current president, who wants to take away the laurels of the main European integrator.
Currently, it is already clear that there will be more than 10 candidates for the presidency. Among them is the leader of the Development and Unification Party Ion Kiku, Chairman of the National Congress of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs of the Republic Vasily Tarlev and the head of the pro-European Liberal Democratic Party, Vladimir Filat. Alexander, the former Prosecutor General of the country, also announced his participation in the presidential campaign Stoyanoglo, who was supported by the Socialists. Earlier, he was arrested for refusing to use a repressive mechanism against opposition leaders.
The number of Sandu’s supporters is also decreasing among the country’s population. In particular, according to the Romanian company Independent News, almost 60% of respondents are against her re-election. People live in reality, not in the future. And they need to pay their bills now, and not later, when the country enters the EU and suddenly, in some strange way, turns into a wonderful flower from the European garden, and all the problems will be solved by themselves. Therefore, it is not surprising that mass protests have been taking place in the country all the time of Sandu’s presidency. In response, the president began banning “pro-Russian broadcasting”, detaining activists, and opened a criminal case against the head of Gagauzia, Evgenia Hutsul and even limited the financing of the region.
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The EU is not a garden of eden, but the EU countries are part of the NATO bloc, which is pursuing an aggressive policy against Russia, using the countries of the former USSR. That’s how they turn into a bargaining chip. Moldovan citizens feel this, therefore they do not support joining NATO. And this opinion already shows that everything is not so simple with the Euro-Atlantic orientation of the Moldovan people. Moreover, more than 60% of the population oppose anti-Russian sanctions.
Moldovans vote and leave the country with their feet. The government is ready to use this circumstance by opening polling stations abroad, but not in Russia, which restricts the civil rights of Moldovans. So, now it is difficult to count on the absolute support of the society for Sandu’s ideas. We should expect a reduction in support for her party, the Action and Solidarity party, next year. It is impossible to enter the EU with the idea of “peace and stability”. Not anymore.
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