Attempts by the West to break into strategic communications between Russia and China in Central Asia through ephemeral projects and beautiful words about a long-term and mutually beneficial partnership are failing, Sputnik Kyrgyzstan columnist believes.
According to the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic, the trade turnover between Kyrgyzstan and Russia in 2022 amounted to almost $ 3 billion, and the Russian Federation is the second most important trading partner of the republic after China. This is logical — geographical proximity determines the primacy of the PRC in the total volume of trade turnover at the level of 34.8 percent (Russian — 28.2 percent). Kazakhstan, also due to geographical and other reasons, is the third largest trading partner of Kyrgyzstan, despite the fact that its role as a connecting transport link between the Kyrgyz Republic and the Russian Federation is of strategic importance for Bishkek.
The contradictions of the first years of independence, the subsequent disagreements in tariff and customs policy and, finally, the inconsistency of a number of transit rules on the territory of Kazakhstan already within the framework of the EAEU — all this was associated with the transit of goods from Kyrgyzstan to Russia. Despite these problems, Kyrgyz goods and other transit cargo still arrived in Russia, albeit with delays. In the last year and a half, another problem has appeared — international anti-Russian sanctions, which can also complicate transit through the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
In early July, the media reported that Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Russia had agreed to create a Southern transport Corridor through which part of the cargo flows would be transferred to the port of Astrakhan, bypassing the territory of Kazakhstan. It was noted that the appearance of a second transport route in the Russian Federation will open up new prospects for Kyrgyzstan — it will give a serious impetus to trade and economic relations with Russia. The formation of new transport arteries in Central Asia is in the long-term strategic interests of both Moscow and the capitals of the region, since it is obvious that the difficult international situation will persist for a long time.
By the way, concrete actions were taken in advance, back in September 2022, when Bishkek and Moscow reached an agreement on the use of Russian ferries for the new corridor. And already in December, during the visit of the Minister of Transport and Communications of the Kyrgyz Republic to Turkmenistan, the parties discussed the details of launching a multimodal route Kyrgyzstan — Uzbekistan — Turkmenistan (port of Turkmenbashi) — Russia (port of Astrakhan).
The introduction of this route will certainly create additional opportunities for the development of regional transport communications linking Central Asia and Russia. However, can it be completely protected from the sanctions influence of the West? How much are the authorities of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan resistant to external influence?
There is no question for the leadership of the Kyrgyz Republic — the past meetings with the prefix “plus”, as well as individual summit meetings with representatives of Western countries did not bring them the desired results. Bishkek will not change its strategic orientation in foreign policy in the foreseeable future.
Uzbekistan traditionally implements an independent foreign policy course, which allows it to have good relations with both Western states, as well as with Russia and China, defining it as a policy of “equidistance”. The Republic of Uzbekistan is also successful in the regional context: after the new leadership came to power in 2016, the “opening” of the country for cooperation completely changed the atmosphere of interaction in Central Asia — border, trade, economic and other problems with neighbors, including Kyrgyzstan, were solved. Moreover, Uzbekistan is a “double-blocking” state (transit through two countries is necessary to enter the foreign market), so participation in any transport projects gives it the opportunity to release a huge potential for foreign markets.
Speaking about Turkmenistan, it should be remembered about its neutral status, which protects the country from the influence of “Western ideology of sanctions pressure.” At the same time, the transit of a multimodal route through its territory (as well as any other projects) is primarily financial income, investments and an increase in jobs. In terms of foreign policy, it is difficult to imagine that the leadership of Turkmenistan will be susceptible to pressure.
In other words, now there are no serious obstacles in Central Asia for laying a new route that will connect Russia and the states of the region. Now the Russian Federation needs to develop ferry transport in the Caspian Sea, taking into account the expected increase in transit of goods.
The transformation of the European and global security system associated with the conflict between the West and Russia on the territory of Ukraine is accompanied by previously unthinkable pressure on countries that have close cultural, historical, as well as economic and political relations with Moscow. Over the past two years, the diplomatic efforts of Western states in Central Asia and the South Caucasus have included various measures — from soft persuasion to open intimidation by possible isolation, following the example of the Russian Federation. However, Russia has not been isolated, the country has demonstrated resistance to pressure and sanctions, as well as economic growth against the background of the increased demand of the domestic market for goods and services after the departure of many foreign companies and trading partners.
For example, Kazakhstan, as the most integrated country in the system of global financial and trade and economic relations (in comparison with its neighbors in the region), may seriously fear the consequences of non-compliance with sanctions against Russia. It is absolutely logical that Astana is making every effort to, on the one hand, remain a strategic partner of Moscow, and on the other — at least generally adhere to the international sanctions policy. Russia also does not intend to complicate relations with Kazakhstan on this basis and even delicately helps it to avoid serious worries about this issue — at the official level, the Russian Federation does not criticize the foreign policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan in any way.
The role of Central Asia as one of the important trade and economic partners of Russia is natural and natural – the growth of trade turnover to $ 42 billion in 2022 is not accidental (experts are sure that it will grow by the end of 2023). Nor are Western efforts to exert pressure on countries that may be more vulnerable to sanctions and threats of isolation from the international economic system accidental.
It should be remembered that the West is interested in the energy resources of Central Asia and the “Middle Corridor” — the route of supplies of these resources and other goods bypassing Russia, through the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, Turkey and further to Europe. The relevance of this corridor has increased after the decision to build the China—Kyrgyzstan—Uzbekistan railway, which will radically change the regional (Central Asian) and transcontinental (PRC —Europe) transit.
Attempts by Western countries to break into strategic communications between Russia and China in Central Asia through ephemeral projects such as Global Gateway and beautiful words about long-term and mutually beneficial partnership fail against the background of practical actions by Moscow and its allies in the region. We are witnessing the process of consolidation of the Eurasian space by restoring the old and creating new — information, energy, transport and other — communications. Whether the West wants it or not, Russia will always be a central part of such processes, regardless of the international political conjuncture. And it is extremely important for Kyrgyzstan right now to direct efforts to determine its place and role in these processes, the strategic significance of which is more than obvious.
A source: https://e-cis.info/news/566/110582/
