The report, prepared by WTO experts, analyzes and forecasts statistical data on world trade and global financial indicators, as well as assesses the risks associated with modern geopolitical and financial instability.
Roscongress Foundation analysts highlighted the main theses of this study, accompanying each of them with a relevant fragment of video broadcasts of panel discussions held within the framework of business programs of key events held by the Foundation.
Trade growth will gradually accelerate in 2024, despite regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions and previous fluctuations.
In recent years, global trade has been affected by a combination of adverse factors, which together have been called the “polycrisis”. These factors include a number of supply and demand shocks related to the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, and the effects of increased trade policy uncertainty caused by geopolitical rivalry. Despite these challenges, global trade has been surprisingly stable over the past four years. Thus, by the end of 2023, the volume of trade in goods increased by 6.3% compared to 2019. Commercial services have also grown, and between 2019 and 2023, their value in US dollars increased by 21% year-on-year. The value of global trade in goods in US dollars in 2023 decreased by 5% compared to the previous year, to $24.01 trillion, but this decrease was mainly offset by a significant increase in trade in commercial services, which increased by 9% to $7.54 trillion. The decline in exports of goods was partly caused by falling prices for commodities such as oil and gas. At the same time, the growth in trade in commercial services was driven by the resumption of international travel and an increase in the volume of services provided in digital format.
It is noted that import demand in real terms in 2023 was weak in most regions, especially in Europe, as well as in North America and Asia. The main exceptions were the Middle East and the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), where imports increased.
Global trade in goods is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025. Real world GDP growth at market exchange rates slowed from 3.1% in 2022 to 2.7% in 2023, but is expected to remain mostly stable over the next two years at 2.6% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. The contrast between steady GDP growth and a slowdown in the volume of trade in goods is associated with inflationary pressures, which have had a negative impact on the consumption of goods that require high costs in trade, especially in large retail chains.
The risks to the recovery and development of international trade are mainly related to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty.
The unfavorable trade environment that existed in 2023 is expected to improve somewhat this year and next, which will ensure the growth of trade in goods in 2024 and 2025. It is also expected that inflation will gradually decrease in 2024 and 2025, which will allow real incomes in advanced economies to increase again, which will lead to an increase in consumption of industrial goods. The recovery in demand for goods sold in 2024 is already obvious. This is due to an increase in household consumption, which in turn is associated with improved income prospects. However, geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty may limit the scope of any trade revival. Although export growth in many countries should improve as external demand for goods increases, food and energy prices may again be subject to spikes related to geopolitical events.
Choosing the appropriate pace of interest rate cuts will also be a difficult task for central banks in advanced economies, and any miscalculation could lead to financial instability later in 2024. Trade recovery may also be hampered by rising trade costs and uncertainty in international relations.
The sustainability of global trade is also being tested due to disruptions in the operation of two major global shipping routes – the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. Although global transportation costs returned to pre-pandemic levels by the middle of last year, container shipping tariffs began to rise again.
The WTO also notes tentative signs of fragmentation of trade flows, when exports and imports are reoriented in accordance with geopolitical conditions. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is also increasingly directed to countries that are considered friendly. According to the IMF, FDI flows to and from emerging and developing economies are significantly lower for more geographically distant partners. This sensitivity to geopolitical remoteness increased in 2018-2021 compared to 2009-2018 and is especially noticeable in strategic sectors such as semiconductors, telecommunications equipment, equipment necessary for the transition to a “green economy”, pharmaceutical ingredients and essential minerals.
Growing protectionism is another risk that could undermine the trade recovery in 2024 and 2025.
Источник
https://roscongress.org/materials/prognoz-i-statistika-po-globalnoy-mirovoy-torgovle/
