The dynamics of income and expenditure financing during January-October of this year indicates the execution of the federal budget in accordance with the target parameters of the structural balance approved in the Budget Law (No. 466-FZ of December 5, 2022).
According to preliminary estimates, the volume of federal budget revenues in January-October 2023 amounted to 23,106 billion rubles, which is 4.4% higher than the volume of revenue receipts for the same period in 2022. At the same time, in terms of the receipt of key non–oil and gas revenues – both the federal budget and the budget system as a whole – there is a steady positive trend.
Non-oil and gas revenues of the federal budget amounted to 15,896 billion rubles and increased by 28.7% YoY. The dynamics of the receipt of the largest non–oil and gas revenues of the federal budget (turnover taxes, income tax) remains in a steadily positive area, including to the level of 2021 (as less susceptible to statistical effects of the base).
In general, the volume and trajectory of receipt of non-oil and gas revenues by the end of January-October 2023 indicate a significant excess of the dynamics laid down during the formation of the budget law (No. 466-FZ of December 5, 2022).
Oil and gas revenues amounted to 7,210 billion rubles and decreased by 26.3% yoy, which is due to a high base of comparison last year, a decrease in the price quotations for Urals crude oil at the beginning of the year, lower prices and a reduction in natural gas exports. The monthly dynamics of oil and gas revenues remains at a level significantly exceeding their base size (8 trillion rubles per year). In October 2023, the volume of oil and gas revenues exceeded the level of the previous year by more than 27%.
The accumulation of additional oil and gas revenues during periods of favorable price conditions and the use of NWF funds to cover lost oil and gas revenues in accordance with the parameters of the “budget rule” ensures the stability of the budget system to fluctuations in the receipt of oil and gas revenues.
The dynamics of the execution of federal budget expenditures remains at a normal level after accelerated financing of certain contracted expenditures in January-February. According to preliminary estimates, the volume of federal budget expenditures for 10 months of 2023 amounted to 24,341 billion rubles, exceeding the figures of the same period last year by 11.7% yoy (+4.1% yoy from the beginning of the 2nd quarter of 2023).
In general, in 2023, the volume of federal budget expenditures will be formed based on the maximum size of budget allocations approved in the Budget Law (No. 466-FZ) and the amount of additional non-oil and gas revenues (in accordance with the norms of the “budget rule”). This ensures the stability of the primary structural deficit at the level of the parameters of the Budget Law (No. 466-FZ).
Increased flexibility in managing the structure of marginal budget allocations in 2023, including their allocation for unforeseen expenses, is ensured by the availability of unallocated reserves, as well as the release of budget allocations in the amount of 1,496 billion rubles due to the advance transfer to the Pension and Social Insurance Fund in December 2022 of certain transfers envisaged for 2023.
